I decided to switch gears: The NYT reveals why Lukashenko pardoned 200 prisoners.

The recent pardons of political prisoners in Belarus indicate that the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is attempting to reset his relations with the West in order to ultimately achieve a relaxation of sanctions. This is reported by The New York Times, citing analysts, as conveyed by UNN.

Details

In recent months, Lukashenko has pardoned over 200 individuals imprisoned for participating in anti-government protests in 2020. However, the most prominent protest leaders remain incarcerated, including Maria Kolesnikova, who became a symbol of resistance against Lukashenko's regime after she tore her passport to avoid deportation from Belarus.

According to analysts, Lukashenko will not release Kolesnikova without significant concessions, which likely should include the lifting of sanctions.

Maria Kolesnikova's sister, Tatiana Khomich, who lives in exile in France, believes that the recent releases are a "calculated move by the regime" to improve its image and "seek concessions." She urged the West to seize "this rare opportunity," arguing that "the moral imperative to save lives justifies flexible approaches, including the possibility of conditional, limited, or temporary easing of sanctions."

Belarusian opposition figure Valery Kavaleuski, residing in Washington, states that repression in Belarus has become part of the governance system. He considers the latest "batch of pardons" to be a departure from the norm. According to him, Lukashenko's government is "currently sending very clear signals to the West."

However, analysts suggest that it would likely be challenging for Lukashenko to persuade the West to ease sanctions against Belarus, given his repression and support for the war in Ukraine. In particular, there is little chance that sanctions on potash—an essential ingredient for fertilizers and a primary source of foreign currency for Belarus—will be lifted.

It has been noted that Western officials have expressed a willingness to potentially soften measures against the airline "Belavia"—the national carrier. The Baltic States, particularly Lithuania, oppose any easing of sanctions.

Recall that

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus reported the import of several dozen nuclear warheads into the country. He emphasized that this is tactical nuclear weaponry, which is five times more powerful than the "Oreshnik" complex.